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I Am Skooter
So here's us, on the raggedy edge.
If this were the last night of the world/ What would I do? / What would I do that was different / Unless it was champagne with you
— Bruce Cockburn, Last Night of the World
November 5, 2005
Conservatives In The Lead? Maybe on Paper.

According to today’s Globe and Mail the Tories are ahead of the Liberals in the polls.

It doesn’t matter, this is a blip and the truth is revealed to all brave enough to look, or at least read the rest of the article.

That most notorious pollster goes on to say this:

Opposition parties have begun contemplating whether to bring down the government this month, pre-empting Mr. Martin’s pledge to call an election 30 days after Judge Gomery’s second report on the sponsorship scandal, which is due in February.

“The temptation to defeat the government will be overwhelming,” Strategic Counsel chairman Allan Gregg said.

The Tories have a very narrow window of opportunity here. It’s my personal belief that while they may be leadind a poll, they would fail to win a national election in any case. Canadians, faced with a concrete rather than abstract choice of Paul Martin or Stephen Harper will inevitably vote Liberal, despite the findings of the Gomery report. NDP sympathizing ridings stand to be picked up by Liberal candidates as voters vote strategically.

Mr. Gregg continues:

“They know that when this issue fades, their fortunes fade with it, so sooner is better than later.”

Mr. Gregg added that the poll demonstrates gains for all three opposition parties if a vote were held today

That last bit is really the key. The Tories have not really gained anything here, the Liberals have lost. In Quebec, they’ve probably lost more permanently - the Bloc will win additional seats in Quebec, without a doubt.

As for the lonely NDP, our perennial third runner, it seems likely that as their support base leans towards the Liberal party their seat count will remain about the same. There may be one or two pick ups, but Jack Layton has largely failed to inspire and isn’t likely to make any significant gains.

Sadly, this may be a symptom of Canada moving towards a two party system. I don’t think the NDP will ever disappear absolutely, but practically speaking people are increasingly viewing our politics through an American style lens held up by media. They are the politics of simplicity and opposition rather than the politics of ideas. Perhaps in my lifetime they will change, but it’s not going to help the NDP in this election.

So don’t bet on a Tory government, even if they do manage to tear down the government right away. It’s just not in the cards.

Posted by skooter at 9:03 AM This entry is filed under America, Politics.

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